Sweet 16 March Madness 2026 odds, picks: Four best bets for Friday’s slate

I can’t watch another official review. I’m done. I now literally change the channel and circle back a minute later. Usually, the refs are still at the monitor. This is not worth it. This is not the Zapruder film. This is supposed to be entertainment. I’d welcome 20th-century-style missed calls for eternity if we were never subjected to another review that ruined the flow of a game. The movement starts now. #Endreviews St. John’s (+6.5) over Duke The Red Storm are live ’dogs. The Blue Devils know this, especially since junior point guard Caleb Foster is still banged up. St. John’s may struggle to score in half-court sets, but Duke’s carelessness could allow Rick Pitino’s patented pressure to produce several easy buckets. The Blue Devils — who average more turnovers per possession than 129 other teams — gave away the ball 17 times during their second-round win over TCU, and Cameron Boozer has been especially turnover-prone recently, averaging 4.4 over his past five games. In addition to Boozer, Duke relies on so many freshmen, with little experience against an opponent that displays the physicality, effort, and urgency of the Red Storm. Then there is the sideline mismatch. Jon Scheyer — whose team collapsed in last year’s Final Four — was born months after Pitino made the first of his seven Final Fours. The Hall of Famer has been an underdog of at least five points in eight NCAA Tournament games and gone 6-2 against the spread. He is 12-1 outright in the Sweet 16. Michigan (-9.5) over Alabama Every game featuring the Tide feels like a crapshoot, hinging on how many of their nation-leading 35-plus 3s per game will fall. But Nate Oats’ system isn’t stable enough to navigate the bracket, especially without their top 3-point shooter (Aden Holloway). As a No. 1 seed in 2023, Alabama was eliminated after hitting 11 percent from deep. In 2024, No. 1 UConn beat them by 14. Last year, No. 1 Duke won by 20 as Alabama hit 8 of 32. No. 1 Michigan’s second-rated defense is strong in transition and will limit open looks, while the Wolverines should own the glass with their size advantage, just as Florida and Arizona did while beating the Tide by a combined 44 points. Betting on College Basketball? Check out the best College Basketball betting sites Read the latest March Madness odds Michigan State (+1.5) over UConn I’ve gone back and forth on this one about 17 times. On paper, the Huskies have the edge. And Dan Hurley — who has more national titles in the past four years than Tom Izzo does in his career — has gone 15-1 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since 2023. But UConn’s inconsistent shooting is a problem against Izzo’s defense, and UConn’s recent dominance on the boards won’t work against the top defensive rebounding team in the country. One side has an All-American point guard (Jeremy Fears). The other (Silas Demary Jr.) isn’t at full strength. Iowa State (-3.5) over Tennessee Joshua Jefferson’s game-time decision is priced in. But even without the All-American, the Cyclones can reach the Elite Eight for the first time in 26 years, as showcased in their blowout win of Kentucky. If you expect Iowa State to win, expect them to win big, having won its past six games by an average of more than 26.8 points. The Cyclones’ top-five defense creates the fourth-most turnovers in the nation, a nightmare for a stagnant Rick Barnes offense that gives away the ball on roughly 17 percent of its possessions. SEASON : 10-12 (entering Thursday) 2011-25 RECORD : 403-371-12 Why Trust New York Post Betting Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).